The scale of the coronavirus pandemic is inaccurate, as per new reports. The current scientific estimates about the mortality rate of the COVID-19 virus is 0.66% lower than the actual rate.
Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, claim that the 0.5% fatality rate claimed by the US and Italy is “conservative” and highly inaccurate. Their finding matches a recent study made by researchers from the Imperial College of London. The British models suggest that the fatality rate is about 1.4%. But, after considering the undiagnosed cases, the rate went down to 0.66%.
The previous FDA-approved coronavirus antibody test also confirms the two pieces of research. Seven thousand five hundred people from New York state were tested for coronavirus antibodies, and the results were frightening: a quarter of them were formerly infected. The test is considered to be 95% accurate.
The scale of the coronavirus pandemic is inaccurate
That means that the 291,996 confirmed cases aren’t accurate numbers. If the research is right and since the New York population is of 19,45 million people, then 4.8 million people were infected without knowing. Considering the 5% error of the antibody test, it would mean that 4.6 million people were infected. As scary as this might sound, it also means that the mortality rate in New York state is much lower.
The general fatality rate estimated by researchers at Berkeley is up to 8 times higher than previous models suggested. 0.85% instead of 0.1-0.2%. It also suggests that the 5.7% mortality rate estimated by the New York state is way lower than currently believed. The current fatality rate in New York state is considered to be 5.7%. But this rate doesn’t take into account the number of undiagnosed people.
Italy and the UK, as well as several other countries, used the antibody testing to get closer to the reality of the fatality rate of the coronavirus. The results of the models suggesting the infection scale aren’t yet considered to be entirely reliable. The only outcome scientists trust is the estimate on the mortality rate of the coronavirus pandemic.